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Political science professor forecasts victory for Gore in presidential election
pwilliam@franklin.uga.edu
Brad Lockerbie, an associate professor of political science at UGA, does research on economics and elections, public opinion polling and forecasting elections. Columns asked him about the coming election.
Columns: Let’s start with the big one. Who’s going to win the presidential election?
Lockerbie: Right now I’d bet a substantial sum of money that Al Gore will win the presidency. On the seventh of July, I made a forecast that was based on, among other things, people’s optimism concerning the economy. We’re more optimistic now than we have been in a presidential election year since they’ve been taking surveys.
Columns: Do you think it will be an easy victory for Mr. Gore or will it be close?
Lockerbie: It depends on your definition of close. I would forecast that Gore will get 52.9 percent of the two-party vote.
Columns: Do you think the impeachment of President Clinton will have an impact on this election?
Lockerbie: Not in the slightest. Most voters have put that behind them. They seem relatively happy with the economy, and that’s what’s driving them right now.
Columns: To use the slogan the Clinton team used eight years ago, in other words, it is still “the economy, stupid”?
Lockerbie: James Carville was right in 1992, 1996 and in 2000. That’s what Al Gore should be playing up. The economy is strong, and he should make the pitch that he’s the one to keep the economy growing.
Columns: Is there anything Mr. Bush could do between now and the election to narrow Mr. Gore’s lead?
Lockerbie: I imagine there are some things he can do. Just because I’ve made a forecast that it’s 52.9 percent doesn’t mean it’s set in stone. There is some error around these forecasts. An especially adept campaign by George W. Bush and an inept campaign by Al Gore could flip those numbers around. They both seem to be running reasonably decent campaigns. What Bush has to do is convince people that Gore can’t do a good job managing the economy, that if any politician is responsible, it’s either Bill Clinton or Alan Greenspan, not Al Gore.
Columns: What party stands to gain or lose in the House and Senate?
Lockerbie: The Democrats in my model are forecast to pick up 15 seats, which would give them control of the House of Representatives--but I have less confidence in my House model than I do in my presidential model. With regard to the Senate, I forecast the Democrats will pick up two seats. I have even less confidence in that model than I do with my House model. But even if my model’s right for the Senate, the Republicans still retain control of one chamber of Congress, and we continue with divided government.
Columns: Is divided government something that Americans might actually want?
Lockerbie: Americans do not seem to be too put off by divided government. Neither side can take all the actions it wants to at once, so it acts as a moderating influence on what the government can do.
Columns: How do you and other political analysts make these kind of judgments?
Lockerbie: One of the obvious standard-issue items that goes into a forecast would be the past state of the economy. What I include that’s a little bit different is how long the incumbent party has controlled the White House, figuring the longer they’ve controlled the White House the more opportunity they’ve had to irritate people. The fact that the Democrats have controlled the presidency for eight years works against Al Gore rather than helping him. If Al Gore’s victorious this year as I expect, he’s hurt even more in 2004 when he stands for re-election.
Columns: What is the greatest lesson that politicians should have learned from the ’90s?
Lockerbie: Pay attention to what the voters want. When you do that, you do reasonably well in elections. When you go off at the extremes, you lose. Politicians who run to the extremes and don’t pay attention to voters are former politicians.
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