‘Ugly Realities: A New Century’

Gary Bertsch is director of the Center for International Trade and Security and a professor in the department of political science. In this conversation for Columns, Bertsch discusses security issues in the former Soviet Union and the possibility of increased international terrorism.

Columns: How will the crisis in Russia affect security issues in the coming months?
Bertsch: The Russians are finding it extraordinarily difficult to make the transition from Communism to democracy and private enterprise. The standard of living has dropped. People are disillusioned and in a state of despair. And it raises a lot of problems for what happens to this massive arsenal that the Soviets created during the Cold War. We [the Center for International Trade and Security] are coming out with a book about the issue called Dangerous Weapons, Desperate States. Here we have a country that collapsed with 40,000 nuclear weapons and over 30,000 tons of chemical weapons, large biological-weapons capabilities and scientists to make more. And with a collapsing economy and society--with no real government--this is a very frightening situation. Apart from the human suffering and the great cost that the Russian people are going to pay during this period, the world has to be concerned.

Columns: How does the economic crisis in Russia affect security?
Bertsch: The Russians have far less money to put into their weapons complexes--the guards and officials and day-to-day people who manage these nuclear and other weapons sites.

Columns: Should we be concerned?
Bertsch: I think so. I definitely do. There are people who are really hurting and are prepared to make a fast buck by smuggling some of these nuclear materials into the Middle East, or by selling some missile components to North Korea. Just the other day, the North Koreans tested their latest missiles. We could end up in the 21st century with many countries having the capabilities of transporting these so-called weapons of mass destruction--nuclear, chemical and biological--to every corner of the world. This could become an increasingly dangerous world.

Columns: Is security in the former states of the Soviet Union worse now than it was three years ago?
Bertsch: I think in the last few weeks--and even in the last few days, with the attention on Presidents [Boris] Yeltsin’s and Clinton’s summit--we are becoming more aware that there is no functioning government in Russia right now. That means that there’s a free-for-all. The old Soviet state was very stable and very controlled, and slowly, with the move toward democracy and more private enterprise, those controls have been lifted. Now, we have what could be the worst-case scenario: controls are lifted and there’s political chaos.

Columns: What does this do to the balance of power and security in the Middle East?
Bertsch: I think it gives countries and leaders in the Middle East much freer reign for what they want to do. In the Cold War period, with all of its costs and problems, the Soviet Union and the United States had more influence over what were sometimes called client states. Now, Russia has very little influence over Saddam Hussein and what goes on in Iraq. A deterioration in the political, economic and security environment in Russia will no doubt have significant repercussions in the Middle East.

Columns: With the bombings recently of two United States embassies in Africa, we were presented with an apparently well-financed international terrorist organization that seems to have devoted adherents and a lot of weaponry. How do you assess the seriousness of that threat now?
Bertsch: I think the growing threat of international terrorism is one of the ugly realities of the age. There are disenchanted people--at home and abroad--who are prepared to inflict indiscriminate violence on innocent people, as we witnessed in Africa recently. At the University of Georgia last year, we had a national conference where we brought together the secretary of defense, several senators and a number of experts to think about a comprehensive strategy that would deal with this threat. The increasing availability of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons is the most frightening aspect. At our conference here, some experts from the Pentagon noted it’s not “if” but, really, “when,” and they expect that there will be a terrorist incident using weapons of mass destruction on American soil in the next few years.