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By Sharron Hannon
Georgia is the 10th most populous state in the nation and one of the fastest growing, UGA  demographer Doug Bachtel told members of the university’s Strategic Planning Advisory Group at their weekly breakfast briefing arranged by Vice President for Strategic Planning Don Eastman.
Georgia’s phenomenal growth rate is one of the factors that makes the state unique and must be considered as the institution crafts its strategic plan for the next decade, Bachtel said.
According to 1998 figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau on March 12, Forsyth County is the fastest-growing county in the nation, and three other metro Atlanta counties--Henry, Paulding and Dawson--also made the Top 10 list. Overall, Atlanta is the second fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country, behind only Los Angeles, Bachtel said.
“Sixty percent of the growth in Georgia is from new people moving into the state,” he said, noting that these migrants tend to be younger and have higher income and education levels--which increases the pool of college-bound students.
The number of public school graduates in the state has been increasing steadily since the mid-’90s, and Bachtel projects this trend will continue. Private school enrollment also is increasing, as is the number of home-schooled students, he said. “Home schooling will increase significantly because of the Web, which provides access to quality curricula,” he noted.
Contrary to what some believe, in-migration comes primarily from other Southeastern states, according to Bachtel. Georgia’s diversified economy is a major attraction, particularly to residents of neighboring states that have not fared so well.
The University of Georgia--like other schools in the University System, according to Bachtel--draws the bulk of its students from 10 metro Atlanta counties, which account for a significant portion of the state’s total population. This concentration of population is a unique feature of the state, along with its large African-American population (28 percent, compared with 13 percent nationally). While Hispanics represent one of the largest minority groups nationwide, this is not true in Georgia, where Bachtel said he expects the percentage to grow to no more than 3--5 percent of the total population.
Bachtel does expect the elderly population in Georgia to grow significantly, as the general population ages and more retirees move to the state. Since this group tends to vote--and Georgia’s general voter participation level is low--they likely will have political clout, he said.
The state and its flagship institution must grapple with the fact that, despite the favorable economy and strong growth, more than 1 million people in the state live below the poverty level ($15,500 for a family of four). “Georgia’s poverty is intergenerational and rural and therefore harder to stop,” Bachtel said. “Outreach programs are very important.”
In the 1980s, 43 percent of the state’s population had no high school degree. That figure dropped to 29 percent in the 1990s and should be even lower in the next decade--but there is still a lot of room for improvement, Bachtel noted.
More Info
The strategic planning Web site (www.strategicplanning.uga.edu) offers a place to make comments and review what others have said on these and other topics as the university develops its campus-wide strategic plan.
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